amazon drilling pre-spud estimate

Pre-spud estimate for TNP and QPN, updated for today's change in working interests;

Some rough calcs;


TNP (previous 30%)


80M shares

A$1M cash after drilling costs

assume 10 M shares cap raising pre-spud

90M shares total (80M options not counted)

EV @ 14c is A$11M

Pre-spud risked estimate;

Low

122 MMBoe * 17.5% * 20% * A$10 barrel = A$43M

or 25c/share (170M shares FD)

High

163 MMBoe * 17.5% * 35% * A$10 barrel = A$100M
or

58c/share (170M shares FD)




QPN

122 MMboe
163 MMboe

20 % Interest (previous 7.5%)
20-35% COS

US$0.45M to pay Pass.

Require ~A$2.5M in total.

902M Shares

Assume
150 M shares for pre-spud cap raising

Total

1052 M shares

EV @ 1.4c is ~A$13 M

Pre-spud risked estimate;

Low

122 MMBoe * 20 % * 20% * A$10 barrel = A$49M

or 3.1 c/share (1052 + 545M options = 1597M)

High

163 MMBoe * 20 % * 35% * A$10 barrel = A$114 M

or 7.2 c/share




The transfer of some interest from TNP to QPN today will take some pressure off TNP to cover funds to drill the amazon prospect. As the target is large with reasonable chance of success, any positive result will provide a material change to both QPN and TNP at their working interest levels. The above numbers are an estimate, market conditions, sentiment and major shareholder and broker support are all factors. Usually, watch for A$20M EV levels on high risk reward exploration companies, or +20c for TNP and upto 2c for QPN.