"Remember the china daily which mentioned revenue of approx $960 million in first year - this corresponds to approx 4.3% grade for first year of mining at 3 Million tonnes. Even if we have only 3 Million tonnes at this grade - who cares about the rest as we should have approx $4 per share profit in first year alone!"
---
I see a lot of posts like this, and some talking about a $2 dividend in future and how sp is $2 now etc etc
BUT, before you do your calculations you may want to take into account any dilutionary effect of future capital raisings, as the money needed to develop this project (assuming it is eventually developed) has to come from somewhere and at a price.
Then you must take into account that the price offered to an insto or offtaker will always be a discounted market price and sometimes options can be issued to add icing too and more dilution). For this reason, and for the sake of holders, I hope the price at least holds at these levels - But if you're like me and believe the trend is your friend, then expect lower prices and hence more extensive dilution if a capital raising were conducted at those levels
I'm also shocked to see comparisons of this resource to other "copper" mines. It's a bit tough comparing CDU to these projects as some of the resources mentioned are not only much larger (economics of scale) but they certainly have a different ore structure.
By way of example, Olympic damn (while completely in a league of it's own and should not have been mentioned in the first instance) is not a pure copper mine - It is an IOCG deposit and the coincident uranium content at a 400ppm cut off also makes it the largest uranium deposit in the world - I'm sure this significantly enhances the economics of the project and with such an enormous scale deposit such as this it is no wonder that BHP purchased it from WMC all those years ago
I'm not a downramper. I'm not a holder. Just an observer of what has turned out to be one of the greatest ASX-listed dramas of all time
I was an observer of this story since day ONE when the shareprice went from 50c to $10 in a single day. I'm sure some day traders are still thanking Mr WM. And then ofcourse it crashed back down again as quickly as she climbed... There's a saying about "Fool me once, shame on you.. Fool me twice then shame on me"... well there is no other way to say this but I'll put it bluntly - Anyone, holders and non-holders, who witnessed the events of that day and saw what followed, and still decided to pursue this "great investment" should have at the very least, tread with caution...
Good luck to all holders and I hope that the description of events offered by ikey and others is more fact and less wishful thinking, as it's not fun watching people lose money regardless of the circumstances.
All the best to holders
CDU Price at posting:
$2.15 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held