yes i think you are correct.
a)
*Notice the accumulated losses from June 2021 balance, sheet, APM does not have a clean long history of making profits. APM is supposed to be a '30 year' old company. Where is all the accumulated profit on the balance sheet.
*Bank debt in FY21-FY22 declined because of the proceeds from the IPO, but then shot up again in FY23 due to acquisitions.
*Notice the continuous increase in 'intangibles' on the balance sheet year after year. Debt up, intangibles up. This is because APM is trying to roll up companies to grow.
Interest bearing liabilies now at $962m. World is no longer in zero interest rate world, I estimate interest expense to rise to around $70m.
So now we go to the cash flow statement:
Cash flow from operating activities: $204m
Less $70m interest expense
Less principal elements of lease payments $61m (will be higher this year as full costs of premises from acquired businesses pass through)
Gives a balance of only $73m, not even enough to cover the dividends.
As these cash flows come under pressure the auditors are going to put pressure to write down 'intangibles'. This write down, will be reflected in a massive 'one off loss' in the p&l, which management will pass off as a 'non-cashflow' event.
High risk of dilutive capital raise will arise because of that high debt on the balance sheet and because changes to the NDIS modelling (ie the mechanism by which the government will pay contractors like APM) will result in
permanently lower revenue for this segment of the business. Unlike the unemployment division, this effect is not cyclical but permanent.
Lol a smart person might buy 1 share in the company so he can participate in any dilutive capital raise, without actually have much capital at stake.
In fact this is what I have just done.
So hey boys, I am on board.
The proud owner of 100 shares of APM at a purchase price of $1.165. Capital at risk $116.50 (ex broker costs lol)
