I think the only real sighter we have is that Critical Elements got provincial environmental and social permitting for their Rose project from Quebec 13 months after they received the equivalent permitting from the Canadian feds. Allkem achieved the federal approval in January this year so going on that maybe January or February 2024 for the environmental and social permitting then there apparently is a whole batch of other permits required before construction can commence, but my understanding is that those are more procedural. As far as I know Critical Elements has still not commenced construction of the Rose project even after getting their environmental and social permits in 2022 (so perhaps they are a poor example).
Ken Brinsden who is ex- Pilbara Minerals now non-exec chairman of Patriot Metals said in a recent interview with Howard and Rodney from RK Equity that he understood permitting in Quebec to take about 30 months, not much longer than in WA. Chris Evans MD of Winsome has given a similar time-line for permitting in Quebec. Now, given both Patriot and Winsome have yet to deal with the Quebec effective regulator, COMEX, I can understand them sucking up to the bureaucrats by praising how efficient and speedy the process is. But the fact is that COMEX itself has complained a number of times about how non-responsive Allkem has been in responding to COMEX's questions. If you read the minutes for COMEX committee meetings during 2023 you can see COMEX was ready to pull the trigger and recommend the James Bay project be approved but was forced to wait on information from Allkem.
So, yes, if the merger goes through, I fully expect one of the first announcements from the pommy banker parasite will be surprise, surprise, we've finally submitted what COMEX has been waiting for and the James Bay project has now received full environmental and social permitting. And, yes, I have little doubt that Allkem management held the permitting process back so as to favour the merger going through. Bastards.
AKE Price at posting:
$10.47 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
