I'm working on trying to produce a DCF model of NEU for the next 10 years or so to estimate a reasonable target share price. But first I'm working on understanding the time lines of getting drugs from successful Ph I trials through Ph II and then through Ph III, based on our experience with Trofinetide since 2016. Then I'll build a forecast timeline for 2591 to go through the completion of Ph II trials in all 4 ailments, to Ph III and then NDA approval by the FDA and then commercialisation. And then I'll need to estimate the growth in market penetration for each application of 2591 to get an estimate of gross revenue. Can anyone give me an idea of what the cost to us of running Ph III trials would be if we do it on our own? I think it'll be much simpler if I assume we partner that phase of development out on similar terms we have with Acadia - that'll give a good base case to work from.
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