XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-13863

"Longest consecutive fall of the US Leading Economic Index (LEI) since the GFC"

Yes, the chart below is the index they are talking about (i.e. the LEI). The table below the chart show the constituents that make up the LEI. The grey lines in the table are the last 6mths and show just how bad things are at present (disaster - Is that why Powell pivoted?). The only positive constituent of the LEI is the market (S&P500) which has stopped the LEI from crashing to all time lows.

It looks like the trillions that Biden has been spending on weapons and climate change have turned the GDP around (see top chart). But this money has not reached the masses who remain in the doldrums - leaving the economy fragile.

Now that the Republican's have pulled the plug on most of Biden's spending, maybe the GDP and the LEI will tank (like with GFC)?

Also, what about all the trillions in private and public debt that has to be refinanced in 2024???

Personally, I cannot see how a GFC can be avoided in 2024. Even if they cut rates in March, global interest rates will still be high and the required LVR will prevent most depressed commercial real estate from being refinanced - and banks will go broke. Add to that the credit squeeze and China's debt problems and this GFC could be far worse than the last GFC.




https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators