I see a few folks experimenting with charting, well done to you. It is a journey not a destination, so if you want to be successful with it, you must force yourself to understand that it will take time. If anyone is looking for ideas on a complete, closed system of analysis that has a relatively high success rate, check out the Ichimoku Cloud. I have seen day traders make a motsa using only ichimoku. It also provides larger picture analysis.
Let us take a peek at how are tracking over the last couple of weeks and compare to what we expected to see, as per prior analysis linked above.
Weekly
In the initial analysis posted a month ago, the following comment was made: "It is very hard for a momentum move to go against the e200. Most times, price will require several big swings up to nudge it positive, while at the same time it's downward slope will pull the price back. That's where we are now." This can be a bit of a long drawn out process, and one we have been going through for the last few weeks. We have yet to have the big swing upwards to affect the slope change of the e200 (red), so imo the <15c games will likely continue for a little while yet. Of course, this doesn't consider any announcement made in the meantime. I thought perhaps yesterday may have tried a run to 14 or 15, however being so close to the holiday period it's not surprising to see a lack of conviction. A spike or two to this zone should help to flatten out the e200, then we will be free to test our 0.150 level with a view to breaking through.
Recent events over the past couple of months indicate that our chart is finally looking to run with the bulls rather than hide with the bears. In the initial analysis, I commented "I expect to see the green w5 to bounce off the bottom of the cyan e55 and dip a little, allowing the larger ma's to flatten out more, before crossing and doing the same to the e100 and e200." We have had our bounce from the green w5 on the underside of the cyan e55, even though it has been at distance(halfway between it and the yellow e21). While we may get another small pullback by the w5(green) it has now met the conditions for it to move through the e55 and start to work on the blue e100.
The larger ema' continue to change their slope to more positive - when they all begin to nose up then one can expect some decent swings higher. We do after all have an active D1 target on the table to snag at 0.220 area - I see nothing here that indicates our destination will be elsewhere. Unfortunately though, we are definitely in the slowest part of the year, and I personally wouldn't be surprised to see us play the 'ema flattening game' until mid February(discounting news).
It is encouraging to see the e21 continuing to act as bull support, price has used it as base; in fact buyers jump in early and won't even let the price touch it before scooping up everything on offer. Overhead we need to see a weekly candle close out above the 38.2% fib. I believe that the first Friday we see close above the 38.2 (@ 0.110 or higher) we will see a meaningful attempt on 0.150
Of course, we do potentially have a significant catalyst in a week or 2 with the JP Morgan conference. I'd love to see LC step aside from this one and let Dr Woodward present. If the data(new or existing) is received well, we could get an early push, or possibly even that elusive straw on the back that will allow us to play catchup on the last 2 years of positive announcements. In any event, we appear to have started our Bull run - one that will eclipse anything we have seen to date.
DailyOn the daily the we have many bullish tenancies. I am feeling positive. We've seen our first bullish divergence(shown in pink) for some time, which likely gave yesterday the strength to fake-out in a normally quiet period. The cyan e55 has crossed up the blue e100. The green w5 is above the e200(red) which is now decidedly flat. A little longer and it will be positive for the first time in a long time. A positive sloped e200 allows the smaller ema's to cross through it easily, especially considering the current incline angle of the e21 (yellow). It will probably flatten a little as it crosses over, and the green w5 will likely pull back again and bounce off the top of the red e200. This is all normal expected behaviour and very encouraging to see. I have added the potential paths of those 3 ema's, however as always one should ignore the time factor (horizontal axis). It is also nice to see that in general, the up swings have the higher volume whereas the volume of down swings is weaker. Down swings are crucial to a meaningful rise, and this is exactly how you want to see them.
Yes, the picture continues to get better, like the sunrise exposing the valley as it continues to lift off the horizon. I am confident with this chart, not so much that it shows that we need to brace for rockets, but more that technically it is building a strong foundation with indications the bulls are preparing to show their strength in a significant way. There is already signs of some underlying strength here.
The large players have circled the pond long enough to clean out the small fry. New data has introduced new predators, and they have little food to share. And sharing is not really their strong suit anyway. At some point, the water will boil as the predators become entirely carnivorous. If you play the game with them, you might loose a fin, or if you are altogether unlucky and are out of the market when they begin to dance, you may end up as fish poo.
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