XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-13881

"Different global environment those years, China (2nd largest population in the world) wasn't an economic super power and India (largest population in the world) wasn't an emerging super power....."

Yes, but the argument being made in that video is that history has shown that you need a dip/recession/reset to start these long term (multi-year) bull runs and that hasn't happened yet. So, the big question is: Is that going to happen in 2024 or not?

Biden hasn't spend so much money since covid and the US budget has ended the year with a 1.7T deficit (see here). But lets not argue about that. The point I make is Biden's reelection strategy is based on a soft landing. The democrats own the Treasury (where most of the economic numbers come from). They also control the fed (via majority vote). The mainstream media is also pro-democrat. Could it be that they have used their control of these things to avert a recession (hard landing) and the market has gone along for the ride?

So the big question is: Can they keep this soft landing thing going for 2024, or will it derail?

Its all so easy! All they have to do is keep lying about the inflation numbers and give everyone some interest rate cuts and everyone will think Biden has pulled off a miracle and is an economic guru. Yippie! - Well, that's the plan!

But, a lot can happen in one year. They are not dumb. They know if the market keeps going up and oil goes back up, inflation will go back up too - and it will be pretty hard to lie about that. When the fed, democrats and republicans all want the market to stop going up, it probably won't !

We also know, Putin, Xi and many others want Biden out and Trump in. To them its the difference between Armageddon and peaceful takeovers. So we can expect them to have a plan to get the oil price up - which is their biggest weapon to derail Biden's reelection. So, watch this space.

Then there is the debt bomb and the banks? How are they going to refinance trillions in bad loans to commercial real estate and businesses? Also, how is the US treasury going to replace 9 trillion of maturing gov bonds without pushing interest rates up? The problem is so big, only zero (or negative) interest rates and QE can fix it - and we know that can't happen without a crisis?

Somehow, I think Biden has has his work cut out keeping the apple cart on the rails?