drill results from massive target due anyday!, page-53

Thought I would continue this thread as there have been some outstanding input from many, but especial thanks to GG.

Following on from the today's drill results, I thought I would put up some initial valuations for comment, based on 1 well only and gross numbers initially.

1. OIL

Oil, sounds to be tight, lets say half the original prediction.

So 100 bbl/day at say $30/bbl = $1.1m pa

Or say valuation per well = $10 m for oil

2. GAS

Gas, sounds oK, but say 2 Million cf/day, being conservative.

So 2M cft at say $2.00 /m (thousand) cft = $1.46m PA

Or say valuation for gas per well = $10m (roughly same as oil)

AUJ NETT Numbers

AUJ at 40% production value = $1m pa

Value of well 40% x $20m = $8.0m

Comment

I don't know off hand what the well cost, but lets say $1.0m total, or Nett to AUJ $0.4 m.

So:

1. the payback to AUJ will be less than 1 year per well.

2. The value per well will be almost 2 x the AUJ EV, based on an estimated EV of about $4.0 (taking likely cash into account).

So all in all not a bad outcome even on a conservative scenario. Even half my estimate would still be acceptable i would think.

Comments anyone?