War could have been avoided in Dec 2021 when the Russian position was:
(a) That the Ukraine remained Neutral
(b) That Russia retained the Crimea
(c) That Minsk 2 Agreement would be honoured and implemented .#
Personally I can see the problem that that would have entailed for the Ukraine
that was hell-bent on joining both NATO & the EC.
In an ideal world, the Ukraine ought to have been allowed to determine
its future economically and security wise but in a Geopolitical world
where Great Powers clash, its not about idealism but more about
power and that's what we are seeing being played out right now.
Russia has obviously seen its position on the Ukraine ((a) , (b) & (c) above )
as red lines and it anticipated the Ukraine's backers, namely NATO led by the USA,
not accepting these red lines by amassing troops on the Ukraine's eastern and
northern border ....like a Godfather "offer you can't refuse"
But of course the Ukraine refused aided and abetted by NATO (mostly the US & UK)
and we have this war.
Should we be outraged/disappointed?
IMO from an idealistic point of view ...yes
But from a Geopolitical point of view involving Great Powers...no
simply because Great Powers exercise power...not what is right ;
a completely frame of reference and wars are precisely like that, IMO.
#
There is a Greek adage : "Know thy limits" and in this case the Ukraine
has failed to realise its limits or at least that seems to be so at present.
While the USA, UK and other members of NATO may have been acting
out of self-interest, tragically the Ukraine has had to cop enormous
loss of life, injuries, property wreckage and a shedding of population
for underestimating Russia's resolve as per (a) , (b) & (c) above .
If there is a negotiated settlement, will Russia agree to going back to
its red line requirements above? IMO , no because of what has happened
in the interim . IMO Russia is now on its way to consolidating its territorial
position in the Ukraine so that it serves as an object lesson to others,
particularly Belarus & Georgia and Moldova,....".Dont think about joing NATO".
Is that wrong?
IMO yes from a personal morality point of view.......
but unfortunately Great Powers work on what their power will permit...not on what is right and wrong.
From a Machiavellian point of view, the only right is retaining/adding to power
and the only wrong is loosing power and Great Powers historically seem to subscribe to that, IMO.
