Being a rights issue, and not a SPP, it will have to have a prospectus issued, which costs money and takes time to produce, I suspect towards the end of January at the earliest given the holiday period. I would also assume it's at the same price, with the same options as current raise. My preference is they go for $30M with a 1 for 6 issue or thereabouts.
I get around 1.405B shares on issue including the current raise, so 1 for 6 is roughly $30M
We wouldn't be in this mess of capital raising if we didn't have to do the sidetrack. It obviously (to me) cost money we didn't have and now have debts due, hence the raise over Christmas, easily the worst time of year to do a raise.
Well done to the brokers actually finding clients around and thinking of investing at this time of year, though as I mentioned earlier it would have had to have been organised a week or so earlier from the company end, and hence the selloff on discovery.
If management of Mk2 well, not the sidetrack, had been done properly (IMHO), of stopping drilling when we had the bird in hand, and not risked drilling deeper into the unknown, we would have had discovery from Upper Angwa, then lined the hole, drilled deeper and had the overpressure gas, and potentially deeper discovery, all within the budget allowed for the hole, no sidetrack necessary. Next cap raise could have waited until late January or early February.
Discovery is one thing, great management is another. Managers that get it right, take the bird in hand for a junior explorer when it presents itself.
Having got that off my chest, let's look at the future. No reason to think the leopard will change it's spots to stripes. At the end of 2024 we are likely to have around 2.5B shares on issue counting further cap raises and all in the money options, and have raised around $100M at about 20c/sh, assuming we continue to have good results from drilling and seismics. That's enough for 2-3 holes and extra for development of initial gas sales, possibly some type of gas processing and condensate separating with gas compression unit, so we can truck initial gas for the 50Mw power station and the condensate to wherever.
I find it hard to believe the discovery of gas and condensate in a very large new basin, with potentially hundreds of locations to drill wells, sales either happening or very near term, to be worth less than $1 in Mcap, especially if we still own 80%. Even with 2.5B shares issued (including cheap options in this), that's still 40c/sh and a 3 bagger from here, all in a year or so from where we are currently situated.
This is where the ridiculous aspect of investing comes into it. If every shareholder saved their cash to invest fully in the rights issue, then the company would be well funded going forward, yet for every individual, they are better off buying 'cheaper' on market if they can get it, which is what tends to happen.
Of course buying cheaper on market, doesn't work for the individual's investment, if the company doesn't raise the funds and the SP falls because of lack of internal cash.
It's imperative that management understands the dynamics of the market and how the overall market behaves. Gerry Harvey did a rights issue a couple of years ago with very deep in the money raise. Of course it was all taken up very easily (the SP was around $5 and the rights at ~$3.50 IIRC). By putting Invictus in the position of having to do an emergency raise over Christmas, it shows that other more experienced people on the BOD are simply not getting through to Scott the importance of the market, and every shareholder is paying the price in dilution.
All we can do as shareholders is take up our rights, but question Scott on every occasion about more careful capital management and his understanding of market dynamics. Hopefully put more experienced people from capital markets on the BOD, people that he is prepared to listen to..
The conservative nature of announcement needs to go out the window, He needs to sell the sizzle, giving the company the wow factor in official announcements, even if it means giving away a bit of the proprietary secrets. This closely kept information has no value if you have to raise at low prices!!
Sorry about the long rant..
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