EUR 5.56% 5.7¢ european lithium limited

explaination, page-7

  1. 491 Posts.
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    I wasn’t trying to give a full history and status of the project, simply attempted to answer a question here that no one else seemed willing to do for the OP, who asked a pretty reasonable question. I wasn’t suggesting anyone buy or sell based on what I wrote.

    You also didn’t dispute anything I wrote, yet questioned motives as if I’d written something misleading - but then you also implied that the project is immune to market conditions, which is an extremely odd thing to suggest.

    There is an offtake agreement in place with BMW who agreed to base pricing on fast market spot prices for lithium hydroxide with a discount applied. I.e. at market rate (with a discount).

    Market conditions are in fact the most relevant factor for this project, like they are for all similar projects.

    The current lithium spot price is lower than the cost EUR estimated it could produce it for in its DFS and far lower than the price used in the DFS to estimate revenues and profit, even in a stressed case.
    At DFS cost estimates and current spot price, the project would operate at a loss today. What financier/s would fund the remainder of the project currently? They’d much more likely await an updated DFS and improved spot price.

    Now it may be able to reduce its OPEX and CAPEX costs from those numbers with the Saudis as it has indicated, but that is an unknown right now and is a significant risk, as it is for all lithium projects currently.

    As I mentioned previously, many anticipate the lithium price will improve as demand escalates in coming years, I’m one of them and clearly you must be too..but until it does, it’s a very significant concern that any proposed lithium project owners, potential investors and financiers face.

    You also mentioned the Saudi deal, a 50/50 JV - in other words EUR’s interest in the project goes from 100% to 80% in the Sizzle deal, to 40% with the Saudi deal. So EUR would have 40% ownership of a project with an NPV from a DFS that used a lithium price ~3 times higher than it currently is and would possibly operate at a loss or break even if in production today.
    That DFS and NPV is essentially invalid at this point given current lithium pricing, and the fact the company has suggested it could reduce costs with the Saudis. So it’s difficult to assign a value to the project.

    Given all this uncertainty and risk, it’s very easy to understand why EUR couldn’t simply sell its $750M of ordinary shares on market currently, if/when it eventually gets them..nobody would value them close to that right now. They might in the future if those ‘irrelevant’ market conditions improve substantially.
 
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