I agree a merged STO/WDS would like to own as much of Bedout as possible. IMO WDS is looking for growth options and STO fits the bill. STO has great assets and pipeline (Barossa expansion, Piika) as well as Dorado/Pavo almost "FID ready". I reckon Gallagher would love a merger as STO at the moment may not have resources to start Dorado/Pavo right now. A merged entity would devour Dorado/Pavo and dig many more holes. Owning both makes me biased though. A merger with Gallagher exiting seems to be his plan. Merger synergies would be huge but STO Adelaide head office would likely disappear. Having lived there for 30 years until recently this would sadden me but there is no room for emotions in business.
A merged WDS/STO may also bring CVN into play to hoover up the bits and pieces not already owned. The cost (say A$850m @ 50c) would be chicken feed to WDS. And the USD value of say USD600m would also reflect an AUD which is low by historical rates (say 0.7000).
Or would the merged entity want to sell down Bedout interests to spread the risk? Say to 50% and retain operatorship. I for one am happy to hold all 3 and watch this play out. Will CPC want to take the rest? I feel sure the 10% they bought from CVN was just an appetizer. Plenty of upside out there whichever way they go. Lots of excitement watching from the sidelines.
CVN Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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