To say it has been eventful would be an understatement.
We have had more twists and turns than a Mexican soap opera, particularly when seen through the eyes of this forum.
Many key milestones have been achieved, but without an appreciation in lithium prices, we are yet to realise the growth in SP that we thought would come in lockstep with these advances.
At a minimum, we have an operating mine and concentration plant, with no debt.
We have further expansion plans at NAL, Moblan and in WA...all with massive potential upside.
Not a bad place to be at the bottom of a commodity cycle.
Ramping and Building production to 226kt plus .....which hopefully will coincide with the uptick in lithium prices so many analysts predict, and we all so eagerly await. The signs are there, so lets see how long the Chinese can hang on.
We have lost a CEO, had board upheaval and due to our compliance issues and almost non existant self governance, been threatened by ASIC to get our house in order. If things do not change rapidly here over the next 2 months, we will come under further scrutiny by the regulator and risk suspension. No other stock I have ever held has been threatened in this way before.
As for the board composition and structure, many of you know my views on this subject, and I am still far from satisfied with its makeup, lack of independance and limited skillset. But for now, this is what we have and I take solace in the fact it won't be forever.
And we have had our strategic review, which has moved the goal posts and essentially watered down and tempered expectations of future growth.
The focus has well and truely shifted to surviving the here and now...the downward pressure manifested by manipulative forces in the global lithium sector. In itself not a bad strategy for the present, but has come at the expense of the grander future plans which had been originally put in motion by Brett.
Our offtake, which should have been well and truely wrapped up by now, is still in play. Yes, the marlin is still on the hook...as confessed by JB, but its probably not what most people here are expecting.
So, let's see what 2024 brings. Hope is not a word that is supposed to be used in investment circles.
If you have done your research, modelling and forecasting, you will know in the lithium sector we do not need hope. As the 3rd lightest element on the periodic table, as well as the lightest metal, in any environment where space and weight is a factor, and energy density has to be maximised, lithium for the time being is irreplaceable.
As many are forecasting, this current low point in the cycle will end, just as it does with all commodities.
This is still lithium 3.0 in its infancy, a sector still heavily dominated by the Chinese, and still yet to realise the huge demand that will be placed on it, when EV sales go parabolic...a sub 30K EV will see to that.... And with refining capabilities being divested from China rapidly over the next 2 years and beyond, combined with EV adoption, home, commercial and grid storage, as well as logistical users such as heavy transport in trucks, trains and ships, the S curve will go vertical, and we should see and end to the volatility and much more sustainable lithium prices....
They say money is made in a bull market, but wealth is created in a bear. The same goes for commodities. Setting yourself up when times are tough, and weathering the storm, can bring immense wealth when the tide turns. Survive the downturn, invest in cost control and efficiency, get your house in order, and when the bull run comes, you have positioned your company to maximise the revenue from a buoyant market....
So I hope these guys have the nous and intellect to recognise this, to weather the storm and come out bigger, stronger and better.
As I said, the Marlin is still in play, and from what we have been led to believe should present itself in the first quarter of 2024. But be careful, one more sub par offtake, and we are finished.
The ball in well and truely now in Brown's and Buckler's court, with a very limited time to turn things around.
They have another 8 weeks to get the board in order and comply with the ASIC directive, and this is the wrong time of year to be attempting this sort of change. A change which should have happened months ago. Then another 8 months to turn things around and prove their worth before the next AGM, where they could face a second strike.
That is, if they last that long...who knows?
No one saw the Brett execution coming, God only knows what is in store for Brown, Buckler and Crawford.
And Karma, can be a bitch....or a bastard, or whatever term you wish to use, point being, when it strikes, its painful and can be deadly in the corporate world.
So lets look forward to the company improving, a more settled and elevated lithium price, and NAL finally reaching nameplate. Remember, late Feb/ Early March is 12 months since the start of operations at NAL, so we should be getting close
To all my fellow Sayona holders and Hot Copper posters, keep posting, don't fear criticism, be true to your convictions and be respectful. We may not always agree and have different points of view, but that's what makes the world so interesting.
And keep pushing Sayona to improve and become the company we know it can become.
Happy new year to you all, and may your 2024 be a healthy one, a happy one and may Sayona make it a prosperous one.
Take care everyone...
SYA Price at posting:
7.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)