If a proposal was announced tomorrow, it would take 3 months at least to finalise, by which time we will have further Daybue revenue and probably positive Pitt Hopkins results. Positives news on both will push the SP north of $33 in my view and that is entirely possible by April. Some analysts are already saying we are worth very close to that today. From that point, a 100% premium would get you $66.
With respect, why would you accept circa $50 right now (based on a 100% premium of the current SP) when it could be $66 within 3 months?
If you were to wait until June/July, you are going to get further revenue and possibly (more like probably) another positive trial result in Angleman would push the SP well north of $40. At that point, any TO should net us $80 per share.
If you have to chose between $50 now and $80 in 6-8 months, I can't fathom anyone choosing the former.
Fast forward to December, adding in further revenue and one more (likely positive) trial in an Autism adjacent disorder and the SP will organically push well past $55 - $65 in my view. You will have people clamouring to get their hands on a drug that treats 4 different genetic conditions, with the promise/potential of treating Autism more broadly and other conditions - Parkinsons etc.
Any TO from $55 - $65 bring us to $120 (mid point).
Completely appreciate that there is a lot of water to go under the bridge but for me, the results of the trial are not a mystery - they are known.
Respectfully, I accept your position but just don't understand it. If you told me I could very likely double my exit value by waiting a further 9-12 months, I would happily wait without a shadow of a doubt. Its a no brainer to me.
NEU Price at posting:
$24.11 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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