Ann: December Qtr Positions Red 5 to Achieve Top End of Guidance, page-20

Yes hedging cost $400/oz this quarter so $20m in cashflow for the quarter (3000 avg gold price for period - 2619 achieved here = 400)*50koz.

Current gap between AISC and Price received is ~$923 (based on last quarters AISC ($1696) and price received here ($2619)). So this company is spitting 205koz per year at $923 profit each = $189m (have to see what AISC we get at the end of Jan...)

It's worth ~$1bn mkt cap today but all the debt being paid down is transitioning from Enterprise value to market cap (enterprise value = mkt cap + debt). So as debt reduces that value goes to shareholders in theory. A small bump if you ask me as RED now only has $50m in net debt remaining so maybe some people are baking a lot of risk into their model but a sensible person would see the debt as pretty low risk now.

So if we say it is trading for a 5.29x mkt cap / AISC gap multiple ($1bn/$189m) then the hedge coming off would be worth an additional $80m per year meaning this would change to a mkt cap of $1,423m ((189 + 80)*5.29). This would mean a share price of ~0.42 per share at todays number of offerings. That is an absolute maximum as surely a number of investors are aware the hedging will be cleared in Sept-2026 and the company will likely have zero net debt by end calendar year 2024.

For me the thing is this is just a very high FCF/mkt cap company and all trending very positively. The hedge was a bad move enforced by the debt providers when RED was in a bad place and needing cash to get through. I see multiple expansion as the likely lever to come in line with other gold producers and create value for shareholders.