You forgot Sep 11 helping Howard but I also think you undervalue his political skills (or rat cunning) plus Beazley's perceived lack of ticker.
I also disagree with your opinion of Abbott's standing in his party. I will agree that Abbott was the reason the Libs couldn't quite get across the line because he had to come from such a long way behing - that said, his momentum was amazing and he now starts from a much stronger position. I guess what I'm saying is he was unelectable - just - but at one stage most thought he wouldn't get near it.
I think he's flawed but he's pragmatic and is mellowing in front of us.
I actually find Gillard's actions on asylum seekers more distasteful than any other - she knows better but goes against her belief because there are more votes in her dog whistle than in a more compassionate strategy.
That's where karma might get her - if you believe in it.