I have refrained from posting and getting attacked from certain posters however the rather bullish commentary on off market transactions appear to lack any balance, although your comments about MC should provide some!
In reality the prices being touted would value the company way in excess of any current asset backing and are purely speculative
(BTW, no problem with people asking a price, all for free enterprise)
So, at the risk of being repetitive.....
What ANS will ultimately own is certainly the most pertinent question.
It appears the basis for the touted share prices is the belief that ANS will be gifted a percentage of the total project (IO resource) which obviously is where a lot of dollars will be made.
This may well be so, however the company has only ever advised they will be part of the consortium that develops the rail/port infrastructure which is a hugely capital intensive project so at this stage the premise of owning part of the IO project requires some serious dot joining.
(I presume some of the ramping about owning certain percentages of the whole project are aimed to increase the off market trading in ANS - surely not
) Unfortunately ANS does not have the balance sheet to support any of the capital requirements of this project so clearly funding the infrastructure will require a very large equity component be given away structured no doubt with some debt funding.
I am sure some could have a go at working out what percentage would be left with ANS shareholders.
The value of the infrastructure project would then need to be worked out however I have not seen any figures in regard to anticipated cost/income structure.
Clearly the port / rail should be a profitable enterprise in its own right however large capital projects such as this are often fraught with over runs and other problems and highly dependent on the capital provider.
A lot of water to pass under the bridge on that one.
I know everything seems to hang on Ding who has been involved in this project and I seem to remember previous comments about possibly selling the rights to the port/rail and or becoming the project manager.
It is hard to understand whether this will involve ANS or just Ding himself but even harder to understand how some are arriving at the mentioned share prices!
It has always been a puzzle as to why ANS was chosen as the vehicle to go down this path although it appears they needed another Australian company to work with Sundance in the early stages and the initial deals were all about control (which I have said a number of times).
It is hard to see where this is all heading for ANS but good luck to holders, perhaps some of those big Chinese companies will be happy to skim some cream from the top and redirect to ANS shareholders.
