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Here comes jobs losses from high energy costs, page-155

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Scott th Ratbag

46,878 Posts.

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14/01/24

12:09

Post #: 71870241
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Originally posted by acorn: ↑

Consider the rollout pace of renewables. ln a tenth of the time of baseload nuclear and at a much reduced cost.

Further to that, fully depreciated coal which is quite cheap in many cases can't compete with renewables today. Nuclear can't compete with renewables today. How do you suggest that future more expensive nuclear is going to compete with future renewables which continue to fall in price.

Potential that SMRs offer ?

1. SMRs are small. 300mw . The opposite of baseload nuclear which relies on it's large size to keep electricity prices down to an expensive yet more affordable level.

There's the first fail. SMRs are going to be crazy expensive.

2. SMRs are easily displaced by much much cheaper renewabales and batteries at that size. Renewables and batteries that are actually imbedded in communities right now today. Home solar, community batteries and before too long evs that have V2G available.
Renewables and batteries that are right at the point of the load they are supplying and offering a widely distributed resource that has 500% redundancy and are almost instantly upgradeable.
No security issues. No location issues. No reliability issues. No toxic waste for thousands of years issues.

3. Security. Try visiting a nuclear power facility sometime. How do you think we would manage the security of a whole bunch of SMRs spread around the country ? They would have to be many of them because they are so small. Not gonna happen.

4. Rollout. The schedule for commercial rollout is still 10 years away and that's the prediction by the developers . We all know how developers can be creative with facts. Given that Australia has a target of 82% renewables by 2030, 4 years before SMRs might be available, how likely is it that we would switch from the successful rollout or renewables to unproven and very very expensive SMRs ?
By 2030 South Australia will have been over 100% renewable on an annual basis for quite a while.Setting the standard and proving the concept for the rest of the country. How would an SMR fit into that scenario ?
ln 2023 87,217 electric cars were sold in Australia. By 2030 it would be reasonable to suggest that we'll be buying 300, 000 evs per year. Or more.
l would expect that V2G will be well established by then. For sure V2L will be.
So at an average of 50kwhs per vehicle we will be adding a gross of 15 GWhs of energy storage to the country per year. Given that the average driver would use around 10kwh per day based on a model 3's highway usage rate at 60kms per day, we are going to have a huge amount of energy storage at our disposal. And that's just for one year !
We are already curtailing renewables in 2024 because we can't the use the excess. lmagine how all the excess energy storage just from evs will be utilized by the grid in 2030 ?

SMRs simply won't have a reason to exist . Especially in a Australia.

Just like large baseload nuclear missed it's window in Australia in the 60's and 70's, SMRs are going to miss their window in the future. A good idea just gets superseded by an even better idea before it can get going.

lt's all over for SMRs before they even get started .

Expand

Small Modular Reactors don't exist as yet. sure China and Russia have brought online a few small-scale reactors, but these are really functioning prototypes that will demonstrate any bugs and flaws in their systems.

as such we really doin't know how well these things will function in practice. much will have to do with the system management hardware and software too.

there are many needs in grid stabilisation and we don't know what range of tech will be used as yet as more is being developed. the grid will need different energy producing technology to ensure stability and estimates show that the nation will need at least 3 x the energy production we currently have by 2035. no single form of energy production or storage will do for the whole system or be wasted.

all you've really said in this post is that you haven't read up much on SMRs. imo you need to open up your thinking acorn.
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