AEJ redbank energy limited

equity value, page-11

  1. 2,661 Posts.
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    I agree withyou that a recap or LIQUIDATION(partial or full) is the most likely scenario.
    As to your costs of staying in business--turbine overhalls and maintenance are a normal cost of the business and not something you throw in later when working out your profit.
    That would be a bit like saying our sales were our profits and wages were an extraordinary expense(deductable allowance).I repeat-remove the writedowns and you get the trading profit for the year before writing down of goodwill(goodwill does not include depreciation-that's already been deducted).
    Depreciation is a non-cash expense(allowance for wear tear and age),so depreciation is extra cash if you make a profit,or deductable off your loss if working out how much Cash generated.Hence $93m profit before abnormal writedowns=cash generated+$180m dep plus increase in debt of $100m -50m investments in turbine/neighbourhood energy says this backpayment for gas was around $320M dollars.yes a negative cashflow situation--
    Hence the comments.
    The last years accounts were quite plain-yes if we were trading under the same conditions,i.e.making back payments on Gas,we've got no hope.WE HAVE ALREADY DONE THAT.So can move forward.(we are now $100m further behind the ball as a result-being lent by these same lenders.)

    Just shows they didn't really expect the ruling against them and they would have generated that $250m to pay down debt by the due date easily without the kick in the Gounaddiis(sorry poster)

    Yes,and in essence our management is going through a partial or possibly complete liquidation of assets.Obviuosly the hedge funds don't like the pace and would like the existing management out of the way to speed up their ability to exit and to maximise their profit at existing shareholders expense.

    Yes,it is demoralising for management to carry on and make commercial decisions with a cashflow sweep in place---BUT THEY HAVE--with the lenders approval and support to keep them in business and to grow it.New turbine paid for mainly with the cash ($48m)generated in the first 6mo.and buying out neighbourhood energy.

    Its the gas back payment that kicked us you know where.As I figured that total cost to be around $320m at a guess.
    Hence we now owe the banking syndicate $100m more than we did before.

    In the end for all those investing in the debt of Alinta trying for a recap with a debt for equity swop it's about transfer of wealth from shareholders to them(with the origional lenders being the initial capital losers).

    They wouldn't bother unless there was more meat in the sandwich than what they're entitled to as lenders.They're out to double dip---that's all

    meanwhile you have a share that should be creating value i.e. shareholders equity of at around $0.8 cent per month,(on $93m/yr profit divided by 800m shares)and cashflow of around 2.4 cents on ($93m and deprec of $180m)to pay down debt..$270m/yr true cashflow.

    The longer it takes the better for us in the end.The more we get.Here's to a really long drawn out process----I'll drink to that from the top shelf if you paying



 
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