Oh I wasnt directing the your selling your holding btw. Apologise. I was just stating what has happened.
I dont see C&M on the cards based on current calcs, at least not anytime soon.
Once you factor in current operational activities at PLL rate its at a small loss based on JV offtake rates. Thats purely due to freight and royalties btw over and above margins. But its unknown to what extent those costs impact operations. It will become more clear in this next quarter. But also in line with guidance of I think it was 120-140k tons. Your still looking at a small amount produced above JV offtake as such we should profit more on this with a sell price at 1020 or slightly lower pending on grade. This is because the JV costs will be shared 75/25 as will the proceeds.
You also then have to consider that ok, so we operate at low to or near no margins. We then have 200M in the bank and a further 190M odd in unused finance if necessary. So its not exactly like if we did have a bad quarter or 2 we would struggle with any red figures. It would then be a question of simply how much and for how much longer.
I also dont think management would operate on a loss with a speculative outlook on a turn around. It would be negligent IMO and if the company went bust anyone capable of reading the reports in great detail would be able to point it out as negligence on the BoDs role.
As others have said, it will be interesting to see how much ramp up lowers the cost of operation as others have pointed out with volume it will help recoveries but add to this the simple "economies of scale" concept.
What will be more interesting is if management plan on selling the product at present or if stockpiling has been considered. The major issue with this one line is that many already question managements abilities in the current market and want results and ie $$$ in the bank to show for it. But unfortunately the economy or rather lithium market is against the power of assets/stock at the moment and it appears "cash is king". The irony of this will be when the lithium market turns, your going to get people that say "why didnt they just hold the spod" we could of got say 2-3k more per ton on a 30K shipment. This will add up quickly. But as I said, the issue management will face is how long this subdued price lasts which is anyones guess atm.
People are saying things should turn soon, but will they? I recall Global Geoscience in 2017 being at 40 odd cents before it crashed back to sub 10c in 2019/2020 from the covid era. Only to see 80c in 2023. So thats a 6 year cycle. If price has only just tanked in the last year, does that mean 5 more years? Well considering the steep price declines this time relative to the last, a recovery should come around sooner than 2029. How soon? Piece of string.
SYA Price at posting:
5.1¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)