The current surge in uranium prices might be driven more by FOMO and speculative hype rather than sustainable fundamentals. Looking at the mid to long-term outlook, it doesn't appear particularly robust and could even resemble a speculative bubble.
One significant factor to consider is the impending increase in uranium supply from Kazakhstan, which is expected to come online either this year or in the near future. This surge in supply could potentially lead to a downturn in uranium prices. Also what happens when SPUT stops stockpiling? Furthermore, the sector faced a setback with the cancellation of NuScale Power's first planned SMR project due to rising costs and lack of customer interest. This raises questions about the economic viability of SMRs, despite ongoing support from entities like the U.S. Department of Energy.
In contrast, the lithium market is currently experiencing price suppression despite a growing demand, especially from industries like electric vehicles and energy storage. This situation suggests that lithium prices could rebound rapidly once supply and demand dynamics balance out.
So, while there is optimism/hype around uranium, it's essential to critically assess the factors at play, including the potential impact of increased supply, cost blowouts on new reactors, and keep an eye on the lithium market's potential for a swift rebound. Both markets have potential for growth, but uranium's prospects are clouded by the economic and technical feasibility of new technologies like SMRs. Lithium's prospects seem more straightforward, driven by the ongoing shift to renewable energy and electric mobility.
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