Good morning fine people hope you all had a great sleep and are feeling happy, refreshed, & that your souls have been restored ❤️ I know mine sure has!
As a pure long-term investor I think it's wise to form your arguments based off of facts as best you can. Yes sometimes you have to make some assumptions to fill gaps and that's ok.
I just wanted to start off the day with Capricorn if you don't mind.
Warnie was able to back up the $900,000 average turnover that I was quoting from an alternative source. So I think we should be say it is an accurate figure to be using for our calculations.
Another long-term investor suggested to me that the number of Capricorn members is closer to 27,000. I said you'll have to show me proof of that. So he did, see image below from Capricorn themselves. 21,796 Australian members plus 5,170 New Zealand members = 26,966 total members from the date of this publication. In the most recent Capricorn announcement Spenda mentions over 26,000. I think for ease of calculations we just round up to 27,000. They have probably exceeded this number by now anyway.
I think it was Rob that was able to post evidence that the 90% figure was again accurate for the percentage of payments made by card. His evidence showed that it was 89%. Close enough to 90% and more people use card payments to their car servicing due to the high cost.
Rob also showed how important it was to the margins of being PayFac certified. It increased our margin significantly. I'd like to point out that POS falls under the 10,000 per $1,000,000 in flows on the following image, so Spenda suggest it's 1%.
As we know Spenda captured 100% of the B2B flows between head office and the franchises. This is evidence to say the business model and platform results in a very high uptake of the B2B flows. Not one business turned it down.
This is equivalent to the 270m per month flows of the original Capricorn deal that they are currently working on. As evidenced with the Carpet Court rollout, it seems all Capricorn members will be forced to pay for their supplies invoice via the Spenda platform. I want to delve into the calculations for this later.
What is more up for debate is how much of the B2C POS flows can they capture? It's a huge opportunity. The new calculation is as follows: 27,000 members x $900,000 average turnover = $23,400,000,000. Deduct 10% for cash payments = $21,870,000,000 max potential flows.
Below I'll show my workings for a variety of scenarios of percentage captured and the subsequent revenue derived at different fees charged, though as the company states it's 1%.
10% Captured = $2,187,000,000
0.25% fee = $5,467,500
0.50% fee = $10,935,000
0.75% fee = $16,402,500
1.00% fee = $21,870,000
20% Captured = $4,374,000,000
0.25% fee = $10,935,000
0.50% fee = $21,870,000
0.75% fee = $32,805,000
1.00% fee = $43,740,000
30% Captured = $6,561,000,000
0.25% fee = $16,402,500
0.50% fee = $32,805,000
0.75% fee = $49,207,500
1.00% fee = $65,610,000
40% Captured = $8,748,000,000
0.25% fee = $21,870,000
0.50% fee = $43,740,000
0.75% fee = $65,610,000
1.00% fee = $87,480,000
50% Captured = $10,935,000,000
0.25% fee = $27,337,500
0.50% fee = $54,675,000
0.75% fee = $82,012,500
1.00% fee = $109,350,000
So there's my workings for a variety of Capricorn B2C POS take up rates, fees charged, & subsequent revenues per annum.
Feel free to apply your own revenue multipliers to workout the market cap and SP with whatever you think the SOI will be. If Capricorn invest in Spends as per the recent announcement the SOI will be over 4,000,000,000.
Hope fellow long-term investors have the time to review these workings, if you notice an error feel free to mention it and I can tweak the numbers.
Also worth mentioning is that it will take time to fully digest the Capricorn node and spokes. All I've discussed here is the POS flows.
Looking forward to spending the time with everyone here discovering the potential before it is realised.
Also don't be afraid to show your own workings. We might be able to improve the accuracy even further.
May peace and happiness be upon you all on this fine day ❤️
IMO DYOR
(20min delay)