NIC - General discussion, page-530

I think a lot of ppl have gone too early. NIC now has 4.2B SOI, not including options and mgmt perf shs.

Time will tell, but if NIC manages to do $US70M in EBITDA last q (which I think is a realistic est) then that is $210M annualised. The conversion from EBITDA to NPAT is on avg ~45%, so say $95M for FY24. This is for illustrative purposes only as there are other variables over the year.

$95M in $A is ~$145M. This equates to $0.035 eps which doesnt support a $0.60 SP at x20 earnings. You would have to double EBITDA to bring the earnings multiple down, so the question is how likely is it that NIC will do a minimum of $140M per q or $560M in ebitda for the year (a new record). Looks very unlikely to me given where pricing AND the industry is at the moment.

I see this as a valuation question rather than whether the co. is going broke.