Neuren Media and Analyst Coverage, page-771

This is doing my head in!

Ashgood123

Our price target remains at A$24.4 per share with a sum of the parts risk-adjusted DCF valuation (Figure 4).


Royalwulff55

According to the report current unrisked sum of parts valuation comprising trof NA $8, trof ROW $7.20, NNZ-2591 Rett/Fragile X $0.10, PMS $3.40, Angelman $3, Pitt Hopkins $1.10, Prader-Willi $1.70 total $24.40.

There’s an error somewhere.

$24.40 can’t be both the risk-adjusted DCF valuation and the unrisked valuation.

I think it’s likely that $24.40 is E &P’s risk-adjusted valuation and $47 their unrisked valuation.

If that is what is meant, then E & P currently value NNZ-2591 @ ~ A$1.2bn (US $790m) or A$9.20 p/sh.

The division of the A$1.2bn risk-adjusted valuation for NNZ-2591 is:
Phelan McDermid, A$442m;   Angelman, A$390m;   Pitt Hopkin, A$143m;   Prader-Willi, A$221m;  NNZ-2591 in Rett and Fragile-X,  $13m.

Funny, but if you take E & P’s current valuation of trofinetide in both NA and ROW ($15.20) and multiply by 5 (as Neuren says the size of the 4 NDD markets together is 5 x Rett), that would indicate that the 4 current indications of NNZ-2591, if unrisked, licensed out on the same terms as trofinetide, and sold at similar pricing, would be worth A$76. Put together with trofinetide, you get A$91.20. And that’s not allowing for NNZ-2591 development in Rett, Fragile-X or any other indication, nor for better terms this time in any US licensing deal.