Phone conversation with Scott - Jan 12th 2023., page-175

Your example of the Dongara was classified as tight, and it did not flow. That is not unexpected because tight reservoirs (less than 0.1 mD) require stimulation/fracturing in order to flow at commercial rates. Was the Dongara ever reported as having 25mD and then failed to flow, as you stated earlier? No, if it was classified as tight, a 0.1mD perm would correspond to a much lower porosity.

My example of a reservoir at 1mD and 8.5% porosity was posted a few days ago. If we assume the whole 13.9m net pay in the UA has 8.5% porosity and 1 mD then it will flow at 1.5 - 2.5 mmscf/d if the skin factor varies between 2 and 10. (I realize that zone of the sand had 10.5% porosity though). Therefore, more than 13.9m net pay will be required to generate 10 mmscf/d. If the 13.9m zone is stimulated then it alone should flow at 6 mmscf/d. A natural flow rate exceeding 10 mmscf/d was achieved by including the 21m net pay in the Lower Angwa and the flow rate from 21m was estimated to be 14 mmscf/d if the skin factor is 2. Therefore, the total net pay (34.9m) in M-2ST should flow at rates exceeding 10 mmscf/d provided the skin factor does not exceed around 5. Additional net pay is expected deeper in the Lower Angwa and if the cut off porosity is reduced to say 8% then more than 13.9m will be classified as net pay in the UA.

These estimates were all calculated assuming that a 5mD reservoir may reduce to 1mD following rel-perm effects based on actual reservoir pressures in the UA and LA and with a drawdown limited to 1500 psi to avoid rapid porosity deterioration due to compaction.

Invictus should have a good idea what the expected flow rates will be from their simulation work. The most realistic simulations should include a geomechanics module to incorporate the effects of compaction during depletion. I mentioned earlier that compaction can be slowed down by limiting drawdown and by having multilateral wells in the field development plan. Gas injection for pressure support is also possibility. These options need to be commercially viable.