Let me play a bit with your numbers.
I find your 1,6% grade very optimistic. The MRE is 1,12% and that is before mining dilution.
So I'm going to assume 1% average grade over the life of the mine.
* So assuming 1.0% avg head grade over the full mine life
* 2mtpa plant @ 70% recovery = 233 ktpa SC6 equivalent
* assuming 380m usd capex, same as 2mtpa DMS-only operation planned at AKE James Bay
* to be conservative using 500 usd/t opex instead of their 407 usd/t opex. A bit higher, but not 50% higher.
* Also assume that in total 70m was spent on drilling etc.
* Total investment therefore 450m USD
* I give us 15 years to make it back
I want a 15% return on equity after taxes. So NPAT should be 67m USD. per year.
Depreciation is 30m.
Taxes at 30%. EBITDA 139m USD, taxes 42m USD.
EBITDA is 139m, production 233kT, margin per ton needed is 596 US$.
So the average SC6 price needed for a 15% posttax ROE is 1096 US$ per Tonne..
Average price needed for a 30% posttax return is 1505.
MY TAKE: Unattractive at current SC6 prices
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