General Discussion AGY, page-20401

I agree. I didn't think it would get this low, this quickly. While the last few weeks of drops have been almost completely attributable to the wider macro environment, AGY is now left in a particularly precarious position. If you're correct and the filter issues don't look like they can be resolved imminently, look out below for the SP.

We'll see the precise expenditure next week when the results are released, but I'm still expecting $10-12m cash on hand after a quarterly spend of $6-8m. If the filtration issues aren't sorted ASAP, JZ's going to have to pull the trigger on a cap raise sooner rather than later. If sentiment doesn't improve and we keep bobbing around these levels, there's every chance that a CR could now be occurring in the 7-8 cent range.

I think it's possible that we could see a cap raise for around $20m to sustain a few more quarters of trying to get the 2 ktpa operation sorted. Unfortunately, at a 10-15% discount, we'd probably be looking at a raise around 7.6-8.1 cents (based off the current share price). Note that the last cap raise was conducted at an 18.7% discount to the last closing price, so I think estimating a 10-15% discount is reasonable, though it could be a greater discount than my estimate.

$20m / $0.0785 = ~255m additional shares

~255m is a decent chunk of dilution (~15%), considering the 2 ktpa plant was meant to be fully funded by the last cap raise.

I think if it does play out as I've suggested, it will not go down well with shareholders. The CR price will be a magnet for the SP, so sitting in the 7's with an extra 255m shares on issue, with a plant that's still not working, might be a tough pill to swallow.