Li sector remains at critical level?
Yes WC8 finished 2c down to finish at 39 on a moderate volume of just over 11m shares traded.
Yesterday I had written around how Li sector behaving, the downtrend, whether bottom is there, how much more to get to bottom. I had written how ALB play yesterday was important and it needs to get above 127 to give signs of reversal of sector. Unfortunately it didn't go above, finished slightly in red. Someone asked in the morning how US Li went yesterday . Not sure whether it was a dig, easy to check for anyone. Its around 121 level, somewhere in middle between its 52 week low of 112 and possible 128 to cross first stage. Although some US Li stocks were in green yesterday, but not ALB. Last few days ALB is showing an intent, goes up, but gets immediately slammed down by shorters etc. So although its ahead of 115 from Friday, it has not crossed 127 above finish. That part where it gets slammed down from its day's high does not bode well for now - just shows its not ready, yet. So we are at a critical stage, still with some good concerns for now.
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WC8 has continued its slide from its early 60s level 2 weeks back. The drop has been swift and big. There is lot of anxiety among Li stock holders, including some big holders. So, anyone not comfortable, may want out. And sometimes if fear has gripped someone, one gets out at whatever price. The price action shows something like that happening. And we don't know who is right, someone exiting at 37 may be doing very well if say it goes to 20. But not so good if it quickly recovers to 60. Reason being, sometimes its easier to sell, but much more difficult to buy back. People keep on waiting at their sell price to buy back, and sometimes it doesn't come. But I don't think we have reached that stage.
Personally only a small trade for me today. I had written how twice I completely sold all my stocks twice, but now I am finding it difficult to sell all and buy back. So I sold a little on open and bought back that little when it went down, moving my average only tiny from 40.5 to 40. So why I am finding it difficult to sell all which I was able to do at 60 and also at 50? Two reasons. First a decent drop, I feel more drop chances decrease, though we never know. Secondly, when we were coming from 60s, I had only two number in mind. 46 and 34. The number 46 as I felt that was the breakout to 101. Number 34 I remember when it was coming back from 50s, there was a despair one day, I was buying and it reached around 34 before reversing. And I remember a lot because I was buying heavily from 38 to 34 that day. It reached 101 after that. I sold all at 90 with big gains, all written in my previous posts. So it was personal to me, but I feel somewhere a balance is struck. Many believe it go to 10c, 15c 20c, 30 etc. Thing is we don't know what's going to happen. Some will get it right. Others wrong. More luck than brilliance. Same people who are calling 10c, can they post where they called that it will reach 101, at what point etc, not another stab, 2c, $2 etc? Anyone? I don't remember anyone, but point I am trying to say is that it is easy to pluck numbers. To predict it right, nearly impossible. When SP 500 was at 3800 and moving towards 3500, most big banks, and some biggest ever financial wizards of Wall Street were calling that its going to mid to high 2000. Instead it has now made an all time high reaching around 5000, reversing from 3500. Its not easy. Many now believe that all those previous wizards whose predictions previously were right, were actually lucky than brilliance. But we still get punters taking a crack - why not, what's there to lose? If you get it right, point to that post. If you get it wrong, silently move to another stock and continue to make small pleasures of life.
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So what may happen next week? We are in an indecisive stage. We are following overall Li macro/sentiment more than anything else. . We also need Li macro/sentiment, ALB to be on our side. Though they are not great, but things can change quickly. Sometimes very quickly. PMT had reached 67 couple of days back. It got an announcement, which was good but not ground breaking. It reached 87 today - 30% up from its low. If sector sentiment was not bad, rise could have been have much more higher. But still to get 30% gain in couple of days, just shows, if sentiment changes, there is a good chance, Li stocks may rise between 50 and 100% in reasonably short period. But the big question is - when will that happen? Answer is - we don't know. Its best to follow price action rather than predicting and waiting for something - at least I try to do that, not completely, but to a reasonable extent. We have seen a large drop. We could still go lower. But the percentage drop going lower will be much smaller than the percentage gain if it goes up, hence risk/reward may be good, but still dyor. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your long weekend and all the best.
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