"Lets stick to the facts....long term, if the oil is in the ground, and we have every reason to believe it is there, the stock price will reflect this."
True to an extent. But its more about market cap. And with 1.5bil shares on issue thats $45mil market cap. Not cheap.
The market cap is lagging behind the production at this stage. JPR need to produce more to justify current price before we can see meaningful gains.
Still definately worth the punt. We just need J50 to surprise on upside with the acid stimulation and any other method they use. We are budgeting 435bopd, with doubt in our minds that they mentioned 350bopd. So we fear worse. Its a credibility thing.
If J50 confirms 435bopd stable, thats a bonus and will remove doubters.
If J50 post stimulation can increase further to 500bopd or greater that will be a major positive.
Then spud and drill/complete J51 quickly and cheaply.
By early next year we can have J50 and J51 producing 1000bopd between them and J52 on its way.
With two producing wells, we will be able to better estimate/certify reserves and better value the block according to the flow rates we achieve.
If by some fluke NWZ2 produces 200bopd or more, even better for sp.
Its easy to see NWZ2 = 0bopd, J50= 350bopd, J51=35bopd. Total 700bopd. That would probably only justify mc of $60mil. So a 33% gain in sp.
But, its not unrealistic to think NWZ2=200, J50=500, J51=500. Total 1200bopd. MC = $100mil. sp = 6.7c
Either way, its safe to say that most negative holders have sold out. Most positive posters would have averaged down by now. It has spent more time below 6c than above. You can take up your rights and/or buy on market.
Anyone with an average 4c or less could be quitely confident IMO.
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