Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-66

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30/01/24

23:14

Post #: 72145286
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Originally posted by JSSF: ↑

Their numbers for "Operating Income" seem weirdly abstract compared to the data they've presented on the same chart. I completely respect that accounting can be unsuspectingly complex and there's probably valid answers for all of my questions below. Can anyone with more of a background in this stuff help me understand the logic behind the method?

For starters I was making a spreadsheet to replicate this chart before experimenting with my own values. But getting the 23-28% margin required some unexpected math. In a nutshell they've accounted for the 45X Tax Credit in the $1.60-2.80/kg range, but ignored it for the margin calculation. Why would they treat the tax credit as income in the $ amount but not the margin?
I figured $1.6 = 23% and $2.8 = 28% and it's just two ways of providing the answer - my first mistake?

You'll see I've also highlighted the best & worst values.
To get the lower bound of $1.6 they combined opposite scenarios, worst-case gross profit + best-case operating costs and vice versa.
For a genuine lower bound, shouldn't you combine the lowest gross profit with the highest operating costs? That's the kind of situation that can plausibly exist. We can work it out from the numbers they gave us.

Gross profit and Operating Costs are not always bound to each-other in the most favorable way yeah?
What if they're both bad (or good) at the same time? Why isn't the operating income displayed like this instead (below)?

If you make $7 per ton, $0.6 from 45X, but your Opex is $8 then yeah... that's a situation.
At the same time if the stars align, the profit margin is fantastic.

In conclusion:
?

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you're right. They were my first thoughts when I looked at it some months back except the 45X would be $0.8 not $0.6 so worst case a loss of 20c per KG with a ~3% probability of happening when you run all the scenarios.

If you make $7 per ton, $0.6 from 45X, but your Opex is $8 then yeah... that's a situation. At the same time if the stars align, the profit margin is fantastic.

What surprised me was the opex cost in general. SYR are saying they can make natural at $3.64/kg which assumes Balama at full production so add on another 10% which still makes it ~$4/kg

NVX Price at posting: 58.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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