Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-27

is this sensible:

- the product sales were $200k in the Q, and say that is only Dec sales kick off; can we say the baseline right now for the FebriDx and ViraDx is $200k a month - or say $600k a q

- the services were $1.5 mill for the q and they say that is expected 'to continue';

- add onto that the new Hologic contract 4.7 mill over 18 months - or $800k a q

- so product 600k/q and services 1.5m/q and Hologic contract 800k/q yields 2.9mill/q revenue USD, let us go let us say the margin is 30 to 50%; so 'profit' on operations (not taking in admin and all that) is say $1.3 USD mill a q

...so a company that has operational cash flow 'operations profit' $5.2 mill USD or $8 mill AUD a year... what is that worth?

Of course that depends on the monies allocated to non-operations... that is admin, growth, etc.; they said they are 'spending' .9 mill month USD on this, say $1.3 mill AUD, so cash flow, overall Lumos at its current 'output' is still losing substantial money; $700k AUD 'ops profit' per month vs 1.3 mill AUD overheads = losing $600k per month AUD

- now of course selling IP for $15 mill AUD one off sugar hit 'covers overheads' for 25 months

The goal of course, is to become ongoing profitable = ops profit more than covers all other costs; so the current revenue needs to double - that can come from a mix of services and product sales; so now the NEXT Q is vital to see how much product sales have grown from the current baseline; this fin year, will clearly show a profit (with that $15 mill IP revenue); not much of a profit, but a paper profit; what will the next fin year do (if we double revenue then a profit appears again - but not by much)

So... I can see small profit THIS year and small profit NEXT year; it would only be the fin year 2025-26 that can be the exploding company value (if revenue continues to grow)

I get back to 'how to value' a company with so many unknowns; the short answer is: one cannot; maybe 7.7 cents is fair value, maybe 10 cents, maybe 50 cents, maybe the IPO of $1.20; ahh the old day traders, the TA traders, the news traders will have fun with so much fundamental uncertainty