That's one of your better/circumspect posts, mate.
I agree with you that this war has stalled into a war of attrition with negligible gains by either side.
The big question is: what will the likely outcome be and of course at this stage and given the unknown variables which you have nominated , it would be meagre speculation to hazard a guess.
Obviously the economic sanctions on Russia are not having the desired effect as of yet, but instead they have impacted the west with problematic inflation and driven the BRICS closer together as a trading block.
There are still the remaining NATO task of completing its objective of converting ex-Warsaw Pact countries to fully fledged NATO members.; apart from the Ukraine , there is still Georgia, Moldova, Belarus and perhaps Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The competing issues are, IMO: -That the remaining ex-Warsaw Pact countries will want to join NATO as protection from Russia -That Russia sees the creeping NATO on its borders as a National Security Risk.
Of course many in the west accept the former but not the latter...that's why there is a war.
