100% break out, page-151

Evening all

here he is again giving us the best synopsis available of the east coast gas situation.

Ultimately a tailwind for comet ridge and any GSAs signed.

From Sam Berridge -

“Flows out of Longford, which supplies ~70% of east coast domestic gas demand were down -27.3% year on year for the month of January, contributing to the tick up in spot gas prices, now trading around $12.30/GJ - https://lnkd.in/giqBMMkZ

Again I highlight an often overlooked point in this energy transition debate; while gas demand will fall, domestic supply is falling faster. That means without LNG imports the east coast will run out of gas. Once the imports start to flow, we're looking at ~30% increase in prices and a 15-18% increase in emissions for imported molecules. Otherwise known as a lose-lose.

If we have a normal to cold winter this year, like the northern hemisphere is having at the moment, could be cold showers in July. The utilities are suitably concerned. https://lnkd.in/gqNnZ_uQ

Six to twelve months after the government went full Venezuela, and attempted to lower energy costs by capping prices, every meaningful domestic gas producer has an exemption to the $12/GJ gas cap. Including Woodside Energy and ExxonMobil.https://lnkd.in/gRkApGij
The downside of this backflip is all the rigs which were booked for 2024 and 2025 were cancelled, then slowly re-booked for 2026-27 as exemptions were granted.
So sure the gas cap might of provided some relief in 2023, but consumers are going to be paying for that temporary relief in the near term.”


i know I sound like a broken radio and I’m sick of myself to be honest with you all, but I find this domestic gas situation astonishing.. hopefully it’ll be raining 100 dollar bills come June