Hey Sam,
WGX have not been able to maximise their plants for quite a while now, particularly after they shut their open pits (which were not really making any money, but were filling the mill). WB stepped up to the plant and shut the open pits because they were unprofitable. WGX is now producing free cashflow (partly due to a higher POG too) because it is focusing 100% on U/G mining, with stockpiles providing a mix of ore to fine tune grinding and to a less extent recoveries (recovers are lower than usual because grades dropped because Paddy under performed, Big Bell is mining a lower grade section and the BlueBird U/G was also mining slightly lower grade).
Without a doubt, WGX has been and still wants to put higher grade ore into their plants and have been doing so, however, for now, they are somewhat limited in regards to sheet tonnes from all their U/G operations.
Big Bell is currently producing 1mt p.a. Enough to almost fill the Tuckabianna plant alone, with them using some of their 4.2mt of stockpiles (which are unlikely to be particularly profitable, but it's already been mined...). Big Bell deeps will expand output to 1.3mpta (enough to fully fill Tuckabianna).
Fortnum is now humming again and will likely return to 60k p.a at low cost with their main startlight mine providing almost all they need, again, bolstered by a large amount of stockpiles, potential 5-6 years worth. They recently stated they plan to expand production in Startlight.
Bluebird.....
is the ugliest duck.With only 650kt of stockpiles (though at the highest grade), which potentially could last 2 years if they only need to use 300kt p.a.
They can do this because, Bluebird U/G is producing 500ktp.a currently, with it ramping up to 750ktp.a in FY25.
Leaving Fender (300ktp.a at full tilt) and.... Great Fingall which could add 315kt p.a (though I am hopeful they will be able to outdo this number).
So... currently Bluebird can source 500k + 300k +..... until recently, Paddy Flat with 400kt p.a. = 1.2mtpa with stockpiles added to hit 1.4mtpa.
The removal of Paddy has put a dent in WGX near term production plans, which for now, can simply be bolstered by the use of stockpiles as a stopgap to reach the following...
In 12 months time, Bluebird could be being fed by Fender 300kt, Great Fingal 400kt and Bluebird expanded 750kt = 1.45mtpa.
Plant would be full.
This assumes WGX does not bring any other U/G mines back, or re-starts open pits etc.
WGX did provide an update about Paddy on the 4th of Jan, which I think shows they are being very open about the issue at Paddy.
I do think that WGX has and is thinking very carefully about how to fill the bluebird mill over the longer term, as the potential 1.8mtpa throughput that could be achieved with the right ore mix, cannot be ignored. Hence... I view WGX as likely to either buy/deal/toll/acquire a neighbouring asset.
Even if they can achieve my above predictions, their exploration campaigns will take time to bear fruit, so... some nice decently graded open pit ore is needed at Bluebird, preferably within the next 12 months to ensure WGX does not need to draw down too heavily on the Bluebird stockpiles.
Lots of gold stocks are off by a decent amount, though I do agree WGX share price has been hit a little harder, but others like EMR have come back a fair bit.
A couple of weeks will see WGX announce a dividend and... if we go by a RMS playbook, a potential move on something, as a dividend gives WGX another carrot to dangle. Otherwise, the MD has been clear, he's happy enough to do a deal with anyone if it makes sense.
(20min delay)