LTR

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92.5¢ liontown resources limited

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ZacGold

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100

07/02/24

20:51

Post #: 72292581
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Originally posted by 8horse: ↑

11 February 2024, is only few days away, for Gina to make a move.

China lithium carbonate futures price hit the low of CNY 85,650 per ton on 6 December 2023.
Even the lithium price kept free falling, lost 85% from its peak, on 19 December 2023, Gina entered joint bid for AZS for $1.7B, valued the whole Andover project at $2.8 billion.

Here's Canaccord report on AZS,
They estimated AZS' Andover capex to be $1B, operation cost to be US$538/t, comparable to LTR's updated costs of US$590/t. The updated costs are released after the underground contract awarded.

SQM and Gina are currently buying 60% of the Andover project (around few years away from the production) for $1.7B, valuing the whole project at $2.8B.
LTR, currently market cap $2.2B (cash $515m, debt $300m, construction completion over 72%), including spending $1B to develop and build the mine, if less the $1B development costs/capex, LTR is currently valued at $1.5B (added back $300m debt).

So more advantage stage LTR is only valued at $1.5B Vs early stage Andover at $2.8B.

In another way, current LTR cash reserve is sufficient to complete the construction, valuation to construction completion is $2.5B; 100% of the Andover project is valued at $2.8B before construction, adds $1B capex, valuation to construction completion is $3.8B;
LTR $2.5B Vs Andover $3.8B.
More advanced, few years ahead, but less advanced project is valued at 52% higher than LTR's.

Remember, Gina made a bid for AZS when lithium price hit CNY 85,650/ton, currently Chinese lithium carbonate price is hovering around CNY 98,000/ton.

All imo.

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Whats the significance of 11 Feb???

LTR Price at posting: 95.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 92.5¢		Change -0.040(4.15%)		Mkt cap ! $2.243B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
94.0¢	95.0¢	92.0¢	$8.521M	9.153M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
26	369258	92.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
93.0¢	5600	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
17	161831	0.925
36	434133	0.920
14	290407	0.915
40	708990	0.910
14	423032	0.905

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.930	3600	1
0.935	67300	2
0.940	15000	2
0.945	30000	1
0.950	110600	9

Last trade - 16.10pm 02/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

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ASX Today, page-37262

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ASX Today, page-37262

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