Thanks for this. Where can I find/estimate the 13,000 transactions per month? FYI, it should be $20M/month instead of quarter?
What I have spotted:
FY23 total payment volume = $95.6M
FY23 payments revenue = $110.9K
Average fees = 0.12% (I think this drop is due to the implementation of batch payments where companies can pay multiple invoices in a single transaction. This is obvious in EFT explanation below)
I think we need to break the payment segments into 2 parts, B2B and B2C. In B2B case, companies can choose to pay via card (processing fee of 1%-2% of total amount) or EFT ($0.25c to $1.50
per transaction). As we can see if each invoice is $1,000, the fee can differ greatly. B2C is straightforward, card.
CC's Payments revenue potential:Given CC's is B2B for now: 0.12% * 240M annual payments =
$288K per annum.
B2C: Taking average, 1.5% * 500M =
$7.5M per annum
There might be more from Suppliers to Manufactures but since its B2B too, I doubt it will be significant.
CC's Trade financing revenue potential
As stated in announcement (10 Jul 2023) = up to $30,000/store/annum = $6.15M for 205 stores. Based on $20/mth payment flow, that should work out to be 30.75% annualized yield or 2.56% per 30 days. This is way above the current annualized yield of 21% though...
CC's SaaS revenue potential
Only info we have now is $300K/annum from Head Office. Probably another $300K-600K from stores as stated in the CC roll-out initiation announcement (7 Dec 2022).
However, in 10 Jul 2023 announcement, it states that revenue potential mix from CC is 14% SaaS : 43% Payments : 43% Extended Credit. Given trade finance potential = 6.15M, SaaS potential should be c.$2M
If we apply the above to Capricorn,
Payments potential:
B2B Payments = 0.12% * $3.4B per annum = $4.08M. Maybe another couple of millions for Suppliers to Manufacturers.
B2C Payments = 1.5% * $20B (stated in Spark Plus' research) = $300M
Trade finance potential:
270M/month payment flow * 30.75% = $83M (Make sense as Capricorn has a trade advance revenue of $94M in FY2022)
SaaS potential: If $1.7M is for 205 stores ($2M - $0.3K for Head Office), then Capricorn = 26,000 Members * $8.3K + $1.2M for Head Office = $216.8M per annum. Looks massive to me, I wouldn't want to pay $8.3K per annum for some ERP system for sure, so maybe Spenda will offer a more afforable rate to encourage adoption?
Total CAP's potential = $604M. Applying an Adrian's discount of 50% = $302M. Looks healthy still.
Happy to see any other models people have out there.
(20min delay)