hmm.... so I finally had a chance to listen the conference call.
First off, I was wrong to say that RMS did not disclose what the previous AISC guidance had been, though obviously RMS did not want the revised figure front and centre, as... it's not great, but the increased guidance does go a long way to reducing the impact of the large cost associated with the conveyer issue at Mt Magnet and the increased ounces from Edna, which.... are higher cost.
An increase in the base by $250 an ounce is a large increase ($1550 ==> $1750).
If they produce 273,000 ounces, that is a $70m increase in costs within the business in FY24.
The big tell for me is when MZ discussed the new 'Mt Magnet Mine Plan' which is coming out this quarter.
He went into some detail about it. It was brought up when a question was raised about Edna May, which... let's be honest, shows that he did not want to talk about Edna May. In fact, he stated that in a couple of months they will 'dust off' the plans that were shelved 12 months ago. Well... a couple of month means what... June? by june they would have likely needed to be 6 months into the Stage 3. The potential cutback is huge... $200m+ probably. That takes, a crap ton of time, time that MZ seems to imply they have ample of.
I agree with
@CashedUpBogun - Edna is now just about producing some extra cash to bolster their war chest for whatever they have eyes on.
As others have pointed out, RMS stopped exploration drilling of Edna's main satellite deposits a while back now. Symes is the only one that got any attention at all and it's small. RMS has, rightly I think, rationalised that it's best to make $$ to allow them to buy a better producing asset.
If I can do some speculation, RMS might be wanting to bolster Mt Magnet production profile as high as possible over the next 3 years (Penny for the next 12-24 months depending on how long they can extend the current mine plan) in conjuncture with the Cue high grade (but high strip) open pits.
He also mentioned Bartus and Eridanus as (I assume) other potential U/G sources of ore.
Giving Mt Magnet a potential 180-200k p.a (but only for 2-3 years max). This will help deflect the focus away from the overall decline in RMS overall production profile as Edna May tapers off. At least, that is what I would try and do.
I just feel like it's all coming together with higher cash generation from Penny (and... lower strip from Eridanus open pit).
Roe/Rebecca looks to continue it's snails pace progress, so.... the only real option for RMS is to buy something or become a single mine company which I think MZ will just not let happen.
It was interesting to hear the Cue/Musgrave ore will likely be mined as early as July-Sept this calendar year, though it perhaps matches my thoughts on RMS 'window' of opportunity (to supercharge Mt Magnet in the near term).
One thing that I should not discount, is RMS ability to do a deal by selling Edna May. Perhaps there is another entity out there happy to buy it... though I doubt it would have a huge amount of value (happy to be proven wrong).
In any case, RMS quarterly over the next 9+ months are likely to be the best it has ever had.
Good luck to all holders.
(20min delay)