the 200-300 faceless men (and women), page-5

Yaq, I admire your passion, but ...

Whilst I fit in the 81.7% category (an order of magnitude more), and do hold because of a belief that gas will be eventually recognized as a valuable resource in a carbon constrained world, I am not immune to the desire to crystallize a profit when it passes a somewhat arbitrary level by a somewhat arbitrary time period.

It's obviously not in my interest to talk the stock down, but on the other hand I want to be cognizant of the risks I am running and the chances of success or failure.

ESG is a speculative stock, not matter how much "intrinsic value" it might be seen to have. ESG cannot go it alone (could not raise capital, does not have the production experience, etc, etc), so must sell it's gas in one way or another. Furthermore, the value will be only exposed with an LNG deal as there is insufficient demand locally. So the value of ESG is only exposed, as we all know, in the event of a takeover, or gas sale agreement to a LNG exporter. I have invested in ESG, not because I properly understand it, or can see a growing business into the future, but purely to benefit from speculation that it "should" be valuable. As such it is a risky investment, and at this stage what value it will yield is unknown.

ESG has been clever with it's Jan 14 date, but there is no guarantee that either Santos will be pushed into making an early bid, or that another party will make a bid whilst Santos is weakened (by the HGO deal). What do think will happen to the share price by Jan 15 if Santos hasn't bid, and somebody else hasn't come to the party?

As far as value goes - I have no idea. All I can do is make a judgement as to what profit level I would be happy with. One can hypothesize about what might happen if an upgrade of 50% comes along and if a takeover might happen. What I do know is the share price now, and the direction it is travelling.

If somebody offers to take my shares for a 50% gain, and there are no other offers, then I will not hesitate. I would also be happy with a 100% or 200% gain, but I won't necessarily be in a position to dictate terms.