what are the risks?, page-50

TTC

I really think that your comment about risk versus the current sp has merit and that that is a relative strength that has not been brought up.

Let me blue sky:

If I assume that the plant works I can set a valuation on the 60000tpa plant at $8m and its easy to get to a fully diluted , options exercised position of around 80c.

Then its the USA and once that goes in and we can see the deals they make we should be able to forward value that. Not even going to try but it should be many multiples of of the 80c.

Then the silica - I am not even going to try I dont have enough knowledge to guess.

Then you have the gold project. Also after November we should know.

So where I think your point is very well made is that when the question was posed I did not address it versus the current sp but more along the lines of what would reduce the super profits in the future. For the share to trade @ 50% of fair value ( Not trying to get beyond single AL plant and all the rest has no value) of say 80c there must be uncertainty still around the plant working to specification and delivering the $8m profit.

Is my logic sound. I have moved beyond the plant not working I am in the camp that suggests that the only question is when it will be up and running to specification.

So a seller here would be saying that maybe they are happy to take their initial investment off the table and free ride the balance - or do you think its people who bought higher up and have been waiting to get out with little or no loss.

My reason for trying to understand is that I dont get where all this stock is coming from. Its seems to have shaken a lot from the trees over the past 7 days IMO.

Any thoughts?

Yes I agree with you that even if the plant only works to say 65% profit expectations 40c is good to bank as a value. For disclosure purposes I did acquire a few MHMO today but certainly nowhere near the numbers traded I was switching from sales of heads at 40c and 41c to options at 29c as I could buy more and still have the same capital exposure. Still hold both heads and options.