Ann: Capanda Green Ammonia Project Update, page-67

"Capital Raise Pump is on - trying to get it over 10c for a subsequent discounted CR IMO"

"Facts don't lie"

Opinions are not facts.

"Total silence on funding - loan and construction"
Total silence if you want to ignore the company updates that talks are ongoing on funding options and if you ignore the IDC term sheet for US$14mill.
One of those recent updates upgraded production guidance post the Carrinho offtake. There can be no doubt that that guidance was strongly upgraded following talks with Carrinho and their requirements.
The first year's production was upgraded to 153,000t and the second year from a forecast of a full year's production of 92,000t to now 163,000t.
Those are big upgrades. There are also big upgrades to years 3, 4, 5 and 6. If the DFS was updated to include those big increases in earlier year cash flows, the NPV should show a big increase.



First year of 153,000t, rising to 179,000t with production to start in around six months.
Profit from that first year's production level will likely be in excess of $50mill on my conservative estimates and then rising.
However, the guidance above does not include expected exports to South Africa which the company has stated will require an increase in plant size to stage two with over 200,000tpa - probably well in excess of 200,000tpa.
That means that $50mill will probably be increased substantially when production increases with stage two. High profit growth expectations mean higher PE ratios. So a PE of around ten of the first year's profit in anticipation of strong profit growth in the following years is not an unreasonable target.
A PE of ten would give the company a market cap of $500mill.
That is around 6.5 times upside from the current market cap.
The green ammonia is likely to generate much stronger profits, albeit further down the track but that offers much better than 6.5 times upside from here.
I still see no reason why I shouldn't expect ten times upside or better from this stock by the time the green ammonia is developed. Sure, that won't be next year or the following year but a potential 5, 6 or 7 times upside for next year on the phosphate project alone is close enough to keep me very interested.

The green ammonia has the "Cheapest renewable power feedstock in the world 1.1c/kWhr" (December presentation).
Yesterday the company announced regarding the green ammonia project,
"Three Development Finance Institutions have expressed interest in financing theCGAP."
"The rapid progress of the Lobito Corridor has attracted the attention of miningand explosives companies in the western copper belt of Angola, which is up to1,000km closer than existing sources of explosives supply."
"The Company has already secured a 60-year lease for the site of the CGAP1 onwhich wet and dry season environmental baseline surveys across the Dam andProject site have been completed"
"Since completion of the Technical Study, the Company has attracted globalinterest from prospective companies interested in participating in the CGAP,including financing, manufacturing, technology and offtake"

No doubt, more news to come on that project and at some point, that project will start to factor into the sp.