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tangs

45,990 Posts.

522

17/02/24

12:11

Post #: 72458836
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Originally posted by moorookamick: ↑

I guess the difference here is:
-Capital punishment for Navalny or potentially 130 years jail for Assange

We'll have to wait until next week to see if the Poms allow extradition to the USA.

But back to the war:

Given that the winter produced the expected stalemate (minimal gains by either side)
it will be interesting to see what Spring/Summer coughs up.

While the original motive of the war wasn't territory (whether the Ukraine should join NATO
or remain neutral) any negotiated settlement will like be about Ukrainian territory vs
enforceable assurances that the Ukraine will remain neutral.....IE, not join NATO.

There are 2 extreme scenarios:
(a) That the UAF will force RAF off all Ukrainian territory and restore pre 2014 borders
(b) That the UAF will collapse giving way to more territory falling to Russia.

IMO the negotiated settlement (if there is one) will be somewhere in between and
given that Russia's red line is Georgia, Moldova or the Ukraine joining NATO, it looks
like a Neutral Ukraine will be the nub of any negotiated settlement...otherwise it'll
be ongoing war and may the best side win!!!

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the difference is Assange did commit the crimnes ....Navalny didn't
Assange wwasn't executed , Navalny was

don't compare two very different situations
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