Not always easy to work out why there some posters on this forum who seem hellbent on taking the wind out of Sayona's SP's sails. Almost with intentional purpose in self regulating and moderating the expectations.
Especially when comments like we're up 45% in a week while the concentrate pricing remains flat.
Never mind the fact that market are generally forward thinking well in advance of any material changes.
We also have the fact that many aspects with respects to Sayona's projects and market position have clearly been overlooked in the overall investor outlook across a key basket of existing and emerging producers.
However , and more importantly is the fact that if there is anything we have ascertained this week is the mere fact as shown by Albemarle's own financial sensitivities which clearly highlighted after ' Abnormal ' adjustments to EBITDA results is that with the loss of 10% of top line sales revenue largely brought about in just the 4th quarter to December 31 2023 , their EBITDA post adjustment was effected by 24.3%.
So we can see the correlation of reduced sales to net profit due the retraction in concentrate and refined chemicals.
However , even in the face of this , and despite its EPS for the 4th quarter prior year comparison lost almost 50% , its FULL YEAR EPS was still the second highest on record at US$13.36 based on the POST write-down adjusted EBITDA of US$2.8 billion.
So from their we can clearly see that both Albemarle and SQM as examples are down approximately 50% on their 12 months SP decline as against Sayona's decline of 73.81% for the same period.
So clearly with the Global LIT ETF being only down 32.04% , you can see there is still a lot of room to move to the upside with respects to Sayona's share price. And don't t let anyone tell you anything differently ....even if they do try to hold themselves out as some expert. Because they're clearly not. They obviously have a different agenda to seeing the SP recover quickly because its overdue.
And the gall of this poster to be calling others out as ' Pumpers ' ...., simply because they want to see a better share price , and which is justifiable on all measures.
So while it has been stated that Sayona is up 45% in the last week , it is still down 73.8% for its price of 21 cents 12 months ago as against Albemarle's downside move of only 49.33%.......
Even using the most recent cap raise pricing of 18 cents for Sayona , we are still down a whopping 69.44% based on our current SP of 5.5 cents.
So the reality is that even at 9 - 9.2 cents , that would only bring Sayona's SP to that of what Albemarle and SQM contractions are right now. And that is why 9 - 9.2 is very achievable from these levels. But not before it locks in 7 and 8 after hitting and locking 6 this week. And tomorrow hopefully. with any luck.
So that's where we are going in the short term . 9 cents. And any ' Good News ' from there will see a whole set of new price points being produced.
The best thing though with respect to Albemarles earnings is that the analyst's calls on Albemarle earnings going forward for 2024 is that most are forecasting a similar result of us$2.8 billion ......So basically level with this year's SECOND highest result when you break it down to the EPS level
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