Seemed to think Crimea was on the cards at one point (shorty after AFU confirming the capture of 0.77 sq miles of land). AndyL2880.18 September 2023: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/69904814/single As for the outcome of the war, my most likely outcome is Ukraine captures Crimea and negotiates for the status of Donetsk and Luhansk. Allowing Putin time to regroup or negotiate before his humiliation via defeat (loss of Crimea) will only invite him to attack again at a later date, like he did in the past using Minsk 1 and 2 to build up his forces for a further invasion. I don't see any unconditional surrender, Putin will keep fighting until he knows he has lost, which I see that will be the loss of Crimea.
