Hi Proga,
No, stage 1 isn't the two previous trial mines, but rather what is being built now (19,500tpa anode for 24 years). That being said, they already have a decent stockpile of ore from the trial mine (enough for 5k tons of anode according to Mark Thompson) that will be used in commissioning and early stage production, meaning they don't necessarily need the mine to get started. The last mention of timelines was in May 2023. In that presentation they were targeting late 2024 commencement of production. The appeals process has since dragged on which has delayed FID, so although the company has been able to do early works and procurement, the appeals will still probably push the timeline out somewhat.
As for the recovery rates for stage 1, the concentrator is sized to process 100ktpa to produce ~22ktpa of graphite concentrate.
Up until recently they were targeting the stage 2 104ktpa expansion to commence in 2025-2026. Keep in mind that the Niska mining exploitation applications (for the additional 85ktpa anode production) was submitted in mid-2021. So it's been cooking for a while already. Pair this with the likely situation of being named a strategic project for the CRMA, and we can see that stage 2 will probably fall into Euroz Hartleys' assessment of 104ktpa nameplate by end of 2030, if not sooner - that report was written in December 2022, so pre-CRMA.
There is also the possibility that stage 2 expansion is greater than 104ktpa, as many times now Mark has expressed that they've underestimated what demand would be and that they might revisit the scale of Niska with another scoping study. This possibly makes sense if selected as a strategic project if you take into account the easier access to finance, streamlined permitting (reduced to a strict 27 months) and clearly massive demand from customers.
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