@Gharp I don't think there's any reason to doubt that the shortfall will be taken up. It will be open for three months, enough time for the SP to recover and for Sophs / Instos / Independent entity to take it up. As I have mentioned in the past, the money bags have the upper hand not IVZ. I expect the SP to rise in the lead up to the flow test. If you have refused to partake in the RI, you can at least buy on market and make some cool money as the SP recovers? 34% profit if it
recovers to 13c and you could make more if SP rises higher as we approach flow test?
My theory:
At this stage of IVZ's exploration program, if you think lab results will
rerate you may be shocked when it's eventually released. While the PPSA derisks this project and opens up alternate and/or better funding avenues, the flow test result is the single most important catalyst to rerate IVZ (in my opinion) in the absence of a JV with a major. It is the final and infallible proof of a commercial discovery. Ain't no one eager to lose money for risking it all before this important milestone.
This, I believe is the current state of the market - can only be moved by a positive flow test result. Blessed are those that understand the times that we are in for they shall save themselves of the emotional and mental torture retail punters are subjected to.
There is a reason the SP fell after the discoveries were announced. There is a reason the SP can be manipulated down to 9.7c. Just do some research and you might see a correlation. This is 2024. The market can't function properly by making it easy for all punters to make money. Decode what the market wants and you will be smiling to the bank.
Disclaimer: This is just my own theory and I'm still testing it out by following other players at
similar stage in the industry.
I could be sincerely wrong.
