Sorry, thought I made it quite clear that the model I showed was my take on how Macca got to their 22c valuation. It is NOT a reflection of MY valuation. I'm too optimistic and logical to allow SE2/3 result to (1) decrease the value of our existing reserves at WE (2) wipe out all future drilling prospects to zero. Those drills are close to existing discoveries, almost appraisals. How is it logical to price them at zero when industry average COS for a wildcat is 10%?
IIRC (not at my laptop), I think my risked NAV for STX is 57c after assuming SE will only contain 128PJ (pretty sure I shared that already). I haven't run the scenario of SE1 being tied to WE in my DCF model yet, but I suspect it will lead to a decent valuation haircut from what was c.91c. If SE phase 1 doesn't happen, then the DCF is less relevant at this juncture because the bulk of STX's revenue growth will be 2.5 years away.
618
Bottom of the Barrel Valuation, page-166
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