@tropic
Hello and best wishes to you. You certainly have insights that I do not have but like yourself, I agree with the majority of your comments but not all, my fellow shareholder.
I really appreciate how we bounce off each other. You are very engaging and analytical, which I greatly uphold.
My contention is with Chinese investment.
I look at the history of LMG and the various attitudes expressed by the tone within language and examples used in all presentations, interviews and reports
Yes the 100,000tpa plant is the pinnacle for LMG's expansion at this point in time. The Malaysian plant is extremely interesting and important for global impact.
I do not agree with the following:
"Looking at Mg and LMG, our stages 1 and 2 are insignificant in context of global supply and demand."
I think stages 1 and 2 are highly significant and critical for LMG's development and progress. Stage 1 is to obviously prove the process at scale and Stage 2 is monumental in terms of the globe having a new magnesium producer. Stage 1 and 2 are milestones which will ring throughout the global magnesium market imo.
The evidence in support of the importance of the "Proof at Scale" is the numerous times LMG has been mentioned in International Industry analytical reports in context to the development of process and ability to be an important market player, IN THE FACE of the Chinese market domination.
How can the LMG Demonstration Plant be of significance in relation to Global demand?
1. A new kid on the block with options to allow diversification of markets, improved environmental performance and devoid of political ramifications in regard to securing continuity of supply.
2. Aspirations to progress to 10,000+tpa and then 100,000tpa. Not forgetting that the Malaysian plant is not at all necessarily the final goal of LMG. The royalties from licencing the I.P give great grounds for possible multiple plants attached to LMG.
The likelihood of other countries and companies seeking licencing for use of LMG's proprietary tech has not been a topic of discussion on HC or significantly from LMG. The possibilities for royalties has been unexplored to date but certainly has potential to be game changing and can definitely be promoted by the success of both stages 1 and 2.
3. Stages 1 and 2 are foundational to market awareness, given the potential of what LMG can do to alter the status quo. Of course 10% of the market is relatively insignificant but the scope for 10 x replication exists and could easily escalate to a major and defining market adjustment.
Stage 2 has the ability to demonstrate operational metrics that can really wake the market up. Variable proof of CO2 emissions reduction, use of renewables for power and cost effectiveness production, will make Global news within the sector and change many perspectives.
I do think the Western, European and Japanese alliances will trump Chinese interest and their likely desired stake in LMG's global success. RWE in Germany are certainly not to be forgotten.
If we look at how LMG have strategically not mentioned Chinese investment, have geared towards America, Japan and Europe, have used China numerous times for objective and critical comparison, there is no indication of future Chinese investment.
Additionally, there is a massive move to distance from China. Chinese investment comes fully loaded with the manipulation from 'The People's Republic of China'. The PRC is a manipulating beast with tentacles that are far reaching and powerful. To entangle LMG with Chinese investors would be enough for me to sell and move on in disgust.
I think the tensions with China, trade wars, tariffs and confrontations will be an ongoing catalyst for America, Japan and Europe to underpin the financing off the 100,000tpa plant and any other plants in JV in the future.
I don't believe Chinese investment in LMG would be excellent, on the contrary, Chinese investment into LMG could be catastrophic.
There is a ready made market in the American, Japanese and European magnesium demand, diversification away from China and all the risks inherent to Chinese manipulation.
It may well be that investment from all three currently interested parties (America,Japan and Europe) is variable in its application but comprehensive enough to ensure distancing from Chinese magnesium and the potential implications of association.
As global tensions continue to sour, the likelihood of any form of Chinese Investment being a wise strategic move, is rapidly declining. In my opinion there is a greater likelihood of drastically enhanced alliances forming between Europe, Japan and America via further critical minerals pacts.
I really hope that I am right and you are wrong on this one. With the greatest of respect for you opinion and insights
Kind regards
Ken
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