CXO - Chart Thread, page-8495

I am not sure what you mean when you say "Macro is picking up.." My take is:
1. SC6 Price is around US$850/dmt CFR . At this price CXO is cash flow negative. FCF breakeven is difficult to determine but my model shows it to be around US1600/dmt CFR (Mining & processing)
2. Fastmarkets and other expert Li market observers see no significant recovery in SC6 prices this year. Their view is that SUPPLY > DEMAND in CY24
3. Once CXO has finished processing its stockpiles CXO will quite likely put the mine on C&M to preserve FCF until SC6 market improves.
4. CXO's FY24 Interim results are due shortly. The numbers will not be pretty but what I am eager to see is their working capital position. The Current Liabilities will have to be substantially cleared before they go into C&M. This will determine the residual Bank balance

CXO is quite likely to be dropped from ASX200 on 1/3/24. Hence the current SP volatility has been due to short covering and once the registered holders get their shares back from the shorters many of them will start to sell (NOT as shorters but as equity reduction)

IMO only