Remember there were about break even when they reported H1 2023, if it were not for a reversal of an impairment on inventories. Hopefully falling prices have been offset by higher utilization. Also understand that falling prices have a dual effect: they own 'expensive' inventory, and they get lower sale prices (typiclly with a quarter lag): hence margin compression. I would be pleasantly surprised if they were able to report a profit for the full year, but will be looking to cash flow and refinancing debt more stringently.
I would expect the dividend to be skipped, so it would also be convenient for them to report a loss. I am expecting them to take an impairment against inventories again in H2 2023.
I have my doubts share price will meaningful recover under current management (and ownership) really. If the assets are so great someone should bid for the company, imho, and run it propperly.
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